Congressional races round 2: Ohio and Oklahoma

Continuing through the alphabet

Ohio has 18 representatives: 11 R, 7 D

Filing deadline was Jan 4, primary was March 4

Oklahoma has 5 representatives: 4 R and 1 D

Filing deadline is June 4, primary is July 29

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati

Representative Steve Chabot (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, his opponent raised little; in 2006, John Cranley raised $2 million to Chabot’s $3 million

Current opponents   Steven Dreihaus . Thru 2/13, Chabot has raised $1.1 million and Dreihaus $516K; COH $1million and $430K

Demographics 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 19th most vulnerable Republican seat; Dreihaus is minority Whip in the State House.

District: OH-02

Location Central part of southern OH, bordering KY

Representative Jean Schmidt (R)

First elected 2005

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Victoria Wulsin raised $1 million to Schmidt’s $2 million

Current opponents Victoria Wulsin has raised $546K, to Schmidt’s $414K; COH is $170K and $102K, respectively.

Demographics 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 61st most Republican

Assessment Highly vulnerable. On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 16th most vulnerable Republican seat. How often is a challenger ahead of an incumbent in fundraising?  OTOH, a recent poll showed Schmidt well ahead.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton

Representative Mike Turner (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents each raised about $400K to $500K, Turner about $1 million each time

Current opponents Jane Mitakides has raised $85K to Turner’s $741K; COH is $75K and $483K.

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable Superribbie ranks it 74th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH

Representative Jim Jordan (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat and Rick Seferd raised $161K to Jordan’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Mike Carroll .  No funding data.

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN

Representative Bob Latta (R)

First elected  Appointed

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents George Mays . No funding data

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat, and Wilson spent $1.8 million, his opponent Chuck Blasdell spent $1 million

Current opponents Rich Stobbs, who has an inactive website and has raised no money.

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Safe. Although Superribbie ranks it 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat, Stobbs does not appear to be actively running.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH

Representative  David Hobson (R) retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Sharon Neuhardt has raised $70K; the Republican (Austria) has raised $400K

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 47th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN.

Representative John Boehner (R)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Nick von Stein . No funding info.

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo

Representative  Marcy Kaptur (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 74-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents In 2004, Larry Kaczala raised $255K to Kaptur’s $615K

Current opponents Bradley Leavitt. No funding info.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents In 2004, Edward Herman raised $300K to Kucinich’s $400K.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents  Jim Trakas has raised very little, Kucinich has over $300K COH.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs

Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 83-17

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  Thomas Pekarek, no funding info

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Bob Shamanasky raised $1.6 million to Tiberi’s $3 million

Current opponents David Robinson has raised about $10K to Tiberi’s $1 million

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Craig Foltin raised $600K to Sutton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents David Potter. No funding info.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Lewis Katz raised $200K to LaTourette’s $1.4 million.  In 2004, Capri Cafaro raised $2 million to LaTourrette’s $2.4 million

Current opponents William O’Neill has raised $200K ($94K COH) to LaTourrette’s $700K ($570K COH)

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%),

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 59th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus

Representative Deborah Pryce retiring (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 1,155 votes out of 220,000

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mary Jo Kilroy raised $2.7 million to Pryce’s $4.7 million

Current opponents   Mary Jo Kilroy who came so close in 2006, has raised $917K ($713K COH); the Republican, Steve Stivers – $505K raised and $404 COH

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable. On DCCC list . Superribbie ranks it 5th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH

Representative Ralph Regula (R) retiring

First elected  1972

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 67=33

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Democrat John Boccieri will run against Republican Kirk Schuring.  Boccieri has raised $467K ($330K COH0; Schuring raised $327K ($84K COH).

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 18th most vulerable Republican seat; plus Boccieri has a big lead in COH, and is raising more money

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Duane Grassell. No funding info.

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH

Representative Zack Space (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Joy Padgett raised $850K to Space’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Fred Dailey has raised $111K ($48K COH and $30K in debt).  Space has raised $1.2 million ($811K COH, $11K debt)

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment  Slightly vulnerable. It’s on DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 28th most vulnerable Democratic seat. But Space has a huge fundraising edge, and won easily in 2006

District: OK-01

Location Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS

Representative John Sullivan (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2004, Doug Dodd raised $300K to Sullivan’s $1 million.  In 2006, Alan Gentges raised little

Current opponents

Demographics 61st most Republican

Assessment

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR

Representative Dan Boren (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Safe.  Boren is rather conservative, but it’s a safe Democratic seat in a Republican district and a Republican state

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K), 18th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City

Representative Tom Cole (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against a minor party)

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None

Demographics 61st most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there

Representative Mary Fallin (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents David Hunter raised $400K to Fallon’s $1.6 million, running for this open seat in 2006

Current opponents Bert Smith . No funding info.  Fallon has about $350K COH

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot